What are the Pac-4 teams conference options: ACC, Mountain West or American?

June 30, 2024

Editor’s note: ACC presidents have voted to add Stanford, Cal and SMU

The next step in conference realignment begins with Stanford and Cal.

While four Pac-12 schools are currently figuring out their future, the belief around the country is that the Cardinal and Golden Bears will determine what happens next. They’ve made a push to join the ACC, but there are not enough votes at the moment.

Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State aren’t without options. They won’t be left in the wilderness. But the options on the table are not ideal when a school is coming from what was a Power 5 conference with a century of history.

So what are the options for the Pac-4? Here are the possibilities that have been discussed, according to people familiar with the scenarios who were granted anonymity to speak about the discussions.

Recreating a Pac conference

Administrators around the country remain baffled that the Pac-12 chose not to expand before its media deal. Had it added San Diego State and SMU in the spring, perhaps it would have six members right now and could continue on. But now, it’s hard to see the Pac-12 surviving in any form.

“We continue to believe that preserving the Pac-12 is in the best interests of OSU student-athletes and the remaining universities, and so we are doing everything in our control to stabilize and rebuild the conference,” Oregon State president Jayathi Murthy wrote in a letter to fans on Friday. “As a trusted broker and convenor, Oregon State is playing an important role in navigating both the future of the Pac-12 and the realignment among universities across the Western United States more broadly. We are ready for this challenge. We are prepared for multiple possible scenarios and continue to pursue every opportunity for OSU student-athletes and the university.”

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The idea of the remaining Pac-4 schools backfilling as the Big East once did to keep the conference alive in a new form — rather than collapse like the Southwest Conference — immediately faced numerous difficulties. NCAA bylaws require eight members for a conference, although there is a two-year grace period for leagues that fall below that mark.

For one, the geographically ideal Mountain West schools each face a buyout of around $34 million if they leave by summer 2024, so a jump like that won’t happen (the MWC’s decision in early 2021 to update its exit fee in the bylaws may end up saving the conference). The idea of the Pac-4 adding some American Athletic Conference schools this year and Mountain West schools next year is also unlikely at this point. AAC schools have a 27-month notice requirement and a $10 million exit fee, although UConn left within a year for a $17 million negotiated exit.

The thought of dissolving the Mountain West and merging into the Pac-4 (perhaps without some MWC schools) would require nine of 12 members to vote to end the league. But such a merger would take a lot of time and a lot of lawyers, sources in the league have said. It’s a long shot if it’s possible at all.

“You’d have all the basketball units, current media rights to renegotiate, the Pac-12 has a $50 million liability to Comcast, and I don’t want to take (a part) of that,” Wyoming athletic director Tom Burman told the Pokescast this week. “All of that would have to be addressed. … They’re not going to have a war chest to rebuild with.”

Washington State and Oregon State are searching for a conference after Oregon and Washington announced they are leaving the Pac-12 for the Big Ten and Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah announced they are leaving for the Big 12. (Soobum Im / USA Today)

It’s unclear what value the Conference of Champions has left right now. The Pac-4 doesn’t have a television deal for next year, and it likely will see its College Football Playoff payout diminished relative to the other four “power” conferences if it holds together. Commissioners have a CFP meeting at the end of this month where this topic will come up. It’s possible the four remaining schools could withhold next year’s annual payouts from departing members, but that would be a legal fight. The “Autonomous 5” status, meanwhile, is just an NCAA governance label that hasn’t played a major role in years.

Any Group of 5 school paying a lot of money to leave its conference and its linear TV deal would jump into a very uncertain situation. That’s a lot to risk for maybe a logo, some history and Comcast debt.

According to a league source, the focus from Pac-12 leadership has been to find a landing spot for its final four members. When that happens, more than a century of history from the Pacific Coast Conference to the Pac-12 officially will end.

So what are those possible landing spots?

The ACC

It’s no secret that the ACC’s administrators have spent the week exploring the idea of adding Stanford and Cal (and perhaps SMU). But the league presidents haven’t taken a formal vote, which means the league doesn’t have enough yes votes to do so. The ACC needs 12 of its 15 schools to support expansion before it can make it happen — and there were at least a few no votes as of Thursday night. Multiple sources told The Athletic that there was not another presidents meeting scheduled, and they did not know if there would be.

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But the idea is still a possibility, which means it is still worth discussing. Even though it brings with it massive logistical and geographical challenges, the prime benefit of adding the Bay Area schools would be to strengthen the league by increasing its size. Even if it were to lose disgruntled members at some point (Florida State comes to mind, among others) it essentially would have backfilled those spots with Power 5 schools. And, if the ACC were to stretch coast-to-coast, it might make it easier to expand the next time it needs to as well.

Broadly speaking, it could be a good thing for college sports for the ACC to take Stanford and Cal — schools like these with such great academics and strong Olympic sports programs should have a home within the Power 5. It just seems like the right thing to do.

In order to make such a move possible, Cal and Stanford would need to join the ACC as partial members. Sources have said the ACC has looked at financial models that show Cal and Stanford coming in around 60 or 70 percent of a full share. (SMU is willing to forgo payments for at least five years.)

In such a scenario, Oregon State and Washington State would be left behind and likely headed for the Mountain West or the AAC.

The Mountain West

The Mountain West was founded in realignment as a breakaway from the WAC in 1998. Now it may be the only western-based FBS conference left. The conference is, as might be expected, open to adding any combination of the remaining Pac-4, all of which are an ideal geographic fit.

“A lot still needs to be researched and decided by folks outside of the Mountain West, but until then, we feel really good about where we are and who we are,” commissioner Gloria Nevarez said Thursday. “We have a really strong brand, and we’re ready for anything.”

Nevarez, who was previously the commissioner of the West Coast Conference and worked at the Pac-12, confirmed the Mountain West’s “anything” could include accepting Stanford’s and Cal’s non-football sports if their football teams took an independent route, noting Hawaii is a football-only member of the MWC. Stanford has won 26 NACDA Directors’ Cup titles, awarded 29 times to the nation’s top athletic department.

How receptive Stanford is to the Mountain West on the academic front remains to be seen. The conference is made up mostly of land-grant and former agricultural schools. Boise State is a former junior college (it has been a four-year school since 1965). Academics played a major role in the Pac-12’s reluctance to expand in the past. Cal, with its massive athletic department debt, may not be able to be so picky. Could the non-football WCC, full of private California schools, be another option? It’s possible.

Oregon State and Washington State are natural fits in the Mountain West, although the loss of Pac-12 revenue will be costly and painful. The Pac-12 distributed an average of $37 million to members for the 2021-22 fiscal year, compared to around $6 million in the Mountain West. WSU officials said they will try to remain committed at a Power 5 level, even if that means a greater reliance on private donations. The good part is that the 12-team College Football Playoff coming next year keeps that path open, and perhaps being in a new league makes it even more attainable.

Of that $6 million annual payout from the Mountain West, around $3.7 million of it comes from its media rights deal with Fox and CBS, according to league sources. People around the Mountain West believe that number can and will go up with the addition of any Pac-4 schools. Any expansion would trigger renegotiation, Nevarez said. The league also will begin negotiations on its next deal soon. The current deal ends in 2026.

The Mountain West opted not to expand in 2021 under former commissioner Craig Thompson in part because it would have diluted the per-school media rights payout by adding Conference USA schools from Texas, for example. So the American Athletic Conference instead went in and grabbed UTSA, Rice and North Texas, much to the frustration of some MWC members who felt the league should’ve gone into Texas to grow and be proactive.

The Pac-12’s collapse might place that opportunity in their lap this time.

“For a long time, I think the Rockies served as almost a barrier against conference realignment and expansion in the West,” Nevarez said. “There was a lot going on with all the conferences in the east, but certainly these times show that nobody’s immune, and we always have to be ready, and what I like about our schools and our league is the similarity between our schools. We have this kind of roll-up-your-sleeves, tenacious work ethic — a grittiness, blue-collar, first-generation (energy). That’s who we are. We’ve got some ag schools, land-grant institutions. I just love it. We are the wild wild west.”

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The American Athletic Conference

Two years ago, the AAC tried to create a western wing when it courted Air Force, Boise State, Colorado State and San Diego State. It didn’t happen, but the league is open to the idea of a western wing again. Sources said the AAC would like to add the remaining Pac-4 schools if the ACC possibility falls through. That could be in all sports or just football; Navy is a football-only member in the league.

Without geography, the AAC’s pitch would be that it has more money to offer than the MWC from its television deal with ESPN — believed to be around $7 million annually for founding members but less for this year’s additions. Like the Mountain West, people around the AAC believe its TV number would increase with two or four Pac additions, this time from ESPN. The network does not have much West Coast-based FBS college sports inventory now, only sharing Big 12 rights to the Utah schools, Arizona schools and Colorado with Fox. Joining the AAC would keep the Pac-4 on ESPN networks and potentially provide better TV windows and kickoff times than staying out west. The AAC also has schools with larger athletic budgets and coaching salaries than much of the MWC. But there obviously would be increased travel costs.

The pitch to Stanford and Cal would include the academic side, as the AAC has two top-level private schools in Tulane and Rice, along with SMU and the Naval Academy. USF just recently became a member of the Association of American Universities.

Is that enough to convince two or four to join a conference with the majority of its schools in the Central Time Zone? Washington State president Kirk Schultz told ESPN that WSU joining an East Coast conference was unlikely. “Unless it’s a hell of a lot of money, there’s just no way to make it work,” he said. The AAC hopes its Texas base and presence in major cities could help any potential travel from the west.

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Coincidentally, the AAC has a Northern California school already: Sacramento State is an affiliate member in women’s rowing.

It all starts with Stanford and Cal, and their preferred option right now remains the ACC. But the league’s votes have to be there for it to happen. The AAC and Mountain West will be happy to welcome them if the ACC doesn’t.

The biggest shifts of this year’s conference realignment are done, but there are always aftershocks and trickle-down effects. Now, arguably the most prestigious athletic department in the country needs to find a home, as do three other proud institutions.

(Top photo: Bob Kupbens / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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